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"Insulation King" aerogel industry in-depth report--2

2. "Policies + Standards" are continuously introduced to promote the healthy and high-quality development of the industry
2.1 Continuous improvement of the "dual carbon" policy to promote low-carbon and high-quality development

Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a major strategic decision made by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and is an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development.

2.2 National ministries and commissions have successively issued documents to promote the green transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction

In the context of the "double carbon" goal, my country continues to issue relevant documents, on the one hand, it will continue to resolutely curb the blind development of "two high" projects, and on the other hand, it will continue to promote the green transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction.

2.3 As a high-efficiency and energy-saving material, aerogel strongly supports the development of policies

Aerogel is a national basic strategic frontier new material, which has important strategic significance for reducing carbon emissions and achieving the "dual carbon" goal. The state and local governments have intensively issued a number of policies, and at the same time introduced an insurance compensation mechanism, etc., to vigorously encourage the development of the aerogel industry.

In August 2017, the three departments of the Ministry of Industry, the Ministry of Finance and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission decided to establish the insurance compensation mechanism for the first application of new materials, adhering to the principle of "government guidance and market operation", aiming to use market-oriented means to demonstrate the application of new materials. Make institutional arrangements for risk control and sharing, break through the initial market bottleneck of new material application, and activate and release the effective demand for new material products in downstream industries.

The enterprises that produce the first batch of new materials are the support objects of the insurance compensation policy. Enterprises that use the first batch of new materials are the beneficiaries of insurance. The quality risk underwriting mainly protects the risk of replacement or return of the contract user enterprise caused by the quality defect of the new material. The underwritten liability risk mainly protects the property loss of the contract user's enterprise or the risk of personal injury or death caused by the quality defect of the new material.

The subsidy amount is 80% of the annual premium for the policy. The insurance period is 1 year, and enterprises can renew the insurance as needed, and the renewal shall not exceed 3 years.

In January 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice on the pilot work of the first batch of application of the insurance compensation mechanism for key new materials in 2021. Produce the new material products in the "Key New Materials First Batch Application Demonstration Guidance Catalogue (2019 Edition)", and apply them to 13 key industrial chains such as industrial mother machines, green and low-carbon major technical equipment, etc. During the period of December 31, 2019, the enterprises that applied for the first batch of comprehensive insurance for the key new materials and met the relevant requirements for the first batch of insurance compensation work, can apply for premium subsidies. Among them, aerogel series materials are located in the 328th frontier new materials in the "Key New Materials First Batch Application Demonstration Guidance Catalog (2019 Edition)".

In order to further do a good job in the pilot work of insurance compensation for the first batch of application of key new materials, on December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guidance Catalogue for the First Batch of Application Demonstration of Key New Materials (2021 Edition)", the catalogue will be from January 1, 2022. Effective from today, the "Guidance Catalogue for the First Batch of Application Demonstrations of Key New Materials (2019 Edition)" (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2019] No. 254) will be abolished at the same time. Among them, "aerogel insulation felt" is included in the field of cutting-edge new materials.

2.4 Continuous introduction of aerogel standards to promote the development of industry norms

Aerogel industry standards have been continuously introduced and established. On the one hand, it is conducive to standardizing the application of aerogel in industry, construction, transportation, new energy, aerospace and other fields, and provides technical guarantees in design, construction and acceptance; On the one hand, as the superior performance of aerogel is gradually recognized by the market, the introduction of aerogel standards in different fields and different uses will help open up a broad consumption space in the downstream market of aerogel.

3. The application of aerogel is flexible and wide, and the downstream demand space is broad
3.1 Aerogels have various forms, and downstream applications are flexible and broad

Aerogels come in a variety of forms, including aerogel felt, board, cloth, paper, granules, powder, coatings and special-shaped parts, etc. The product diversification gives them more flexibility and a wide range of downstream applications.

Aerogel felt, board, cloth, paper and special-shaped parts are obtained by compounding aerogel with fibers in the corresponding product form. Felt has the largest output and is the most widely used, and is used for thermal insulation of pipes, storage tanks, furnace bodies, transportation, buildings, etc.; plates can be used for thermal insulation of large equipment and building interior and exterior walls; aerogel cloth, paper and special-shaped parts are mainly used for some special areas.
For example, cloth is mainly used in clothing, shoes, hats and automobile fields; paper (thin felt) is mainly used in thermal batteries and some fields with very small space or very small diameter or where winding construction is desired; special-shaped parts are basically used in military industry and detachable production protective case.

Aerogel particles mainly use their transparency to fill in PC board or insulating glass as lighting and heat insulation board.

Aerogel coating: Compared with traditional coatings, aerogel coatings have lower thermal conductivity and better thermal insulation effect, and can be directly used in interior and exterior walls of buildings, industrial storage tanks, reaction equipment, pipelines, and new energy vehicle parts Equal surface.

3.2 Rapid development of aerogel industry, broad market demand

Due to its excellent thermal insulation performance, aerogel materials are currently in the growth stage of the life cycle as a whole, and many fields are booming. According to the forecast of many institutions, the global aerogel market will maintain a compound growth rate of about 10%.

Markets And Markets data shows that the global aerogel market will grow from $638 million in 2020 to $1.045 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.4%;

According to Lllied Market Research's 2022 Aerogel Industry Report, the global aerogel market is expected to reach US$1.396 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 9.3%;

Gll predicts that the aerogel market will grow at a compound growth rate of over 10% from 2021 to 2026;

According to QYResearch data, the global aerogel market sales will reach US$540 million in 2021, and it is expected to reach US$960 million in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% from 2022 to 2028.

IDTechEX predicts that the global aerogel market will more than double in size by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 8.8%; the growth is mainly due to the continuous expansion of Chinese manufacturers, the diversification of downstream demand, and new aerogels The commercial impact of materials such as polymer aerogels is starting to emerge.

We believe that with the rise of aerogel enterprises in my country and the substantial increase in downstream demand, the development of the aerogel industry will accelerate significantly.

Although my country's aerogel industry started late, it has developed rapidly under the active guidance of the national industrial policy, and the market scale has continued to grow. According to statistics, from 2015 to 2020, the size of my country's aerogel market has increased from 760 million yuan to 3.00 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth of 31.6%. Among them, the market size of my country's aerogel products in 2020 is 1.41 billion yuan; the market size of aerogel materials is 1.59 billion yuan.

In 2020, the output of aerogel products in my country was 126,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.05%; the output of aerogel materials was 100,000 cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 27.88%. The demand for aerogel products was 147,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.88%; the demand for aerogel materials was 103,000 cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 28.43%.

According to IDTechEX Research data, oil and gas projects account for the largest proportion of downstream applications of aerogels in my country, accounting for about 56%; followed by industrial insulation accounting for 18%, construction manufacturing accounting for 9%, and transportation accounting for 8%.

Oil and gas and industrial insulation will still be the main battlefield for aerogel applications, and building construction, transportation and emerging fields will become areas with faster growth in the future. Especially in the field of construction, in the United States and some European regions where the aerogel industry is more mature, construction aerogels have become very common. With the deepening of the concept of energy conservation and environmental protection in my country, the future construction field will become a major market for aerogels.

It is estimated that by 2026, the oil and gas projects in my country's aerogel downstream market will be reduced to 47%, the proportion of construction and construction will increase to 14%, and the proportion of transportation will increase to 13%.

3.3 Oil and gas field: the largest downstream application market of aerogel

Compared with traditional thermal insulation materials, aerogel thermal insulation felt has the advantages of wider temperature range, better thermal insulation, thinner thickness (1/3-1/5 of traditional materials), more corrosion resistance, high water repellency, and long service life. It has the advantages of up to 15 years (traditional materials 3-5 years, tinkering during major repairs), more fire resistance, etc. It is the preferred material for petrochemical and LNG pipelines to achieve energy saving and carbon reduction under the "double carbon" goal.

Pipes per unit length achieve the same thermal impedance value (insulation effect), and the thickness of aerogel is only 1/3-1/5 of traditional materials, reducing the heat dissipation area of ​​​​the pipe by more than 35%, plus the heat storage of the thermal insulation layer, etc. Factors, aerogel can reduce the heat loss of pipes by 40%-50% by replacing traditional thermal insulation materials.

With the aerogel solution, although the initial one-time investment cost is high, considering the longer service life of the aerogel and saving energy and operation and maintenance costs, the cost can usually be fully recovered in about 2-4 years.

Many domestic petroleum and petrochemical enterprises have used aerogel for pipeline insulation. For example, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC and some other petrochemical companies have adopted aerogel for pipeline insulation.

In 2021, my country's oil refining capacity will reach 911 million tons/year, surpassing the United States (907 million tons/year) to become the world's largest oil refining country; it is expected that my country's oil refining capacity will reach 1.01 billion tons/year in 2025. Both the stock and incremental markets will bring broad market demand.

3.4 Building construction: aerogel potential development market

Studies have shown that more than 70% of the building energy consumption is caused by the heat transfer of the maintenance structure. Reducing the heat transfer and energy consumption of the maintenance structure is essential to reduce the building energy consumption.

Thermal insulation materials can be divided into inorganic and organic categories according to their chemical properties. Inorganic materials include rock wool, glass wool, foamed cement, vacuum insulation panels (VIP), aerogels, etc., which are non-flammable; organic materials include EPS, XPS, polyurethane, etc., which have better thermal insulation properties, but are easy to use. Inflammability, harmful gas is generated after combustion, and flame retardant needs to be added.

As a new type of inorganic thermal insulation material, aerogel thermal insulation felt is relatively expensive, but due to its excellent thermal insulation performance, simple construction, almost no maintenance (long service life) and other characteristics, considering the cash saving brought by energy saving, very competitive. In addition to aerogels, vacuum insulation panels (VIPs) are also one of the most promising high-performance insulation materials today, with lower thermal conductivity but higher material costs.

Aerogel coatings are prepared by dispersing aerogel powder in a special high-performance resin emulsion, or compounding with an inorganic binder system. Auto parts and other surfaces have the functions of thermal insulation, noise reduction, earthquake resistance, fire prevention and so on. The test results show that the thermal insulation performance of the 1mm thick aerogel thermal insulation coating is better than that of the 8mm thick polystyrene foam board.

Aerogel glass is a new type of building material with aerogel as the main raw material. Aerogel is sandwiched between two pieces of glass to form a "sandwich" structure, and its thermal insulation effect is several times higher than that of ordinary double-layer glass. And has a noise reduction effect. Due to factors such as relatively high prices and lack of relevant standards, large-scale popularization applications have not yet been realized, but the development potential is huge.

Energy saving and carbon reduction in the building sector are of great significance. In 2019, the total carbon emission in the whole process of construction in my country was nearly 5 billion tons, accounting for 50.6% of the national carbon emission; the total energy consumption was 2.233 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for 46.5% of the total national energy consumption. Energy conservation and carbon reduction in the building sector are of great significance to my country's all-round approach to a low-carbon society.

The energy consumption of the whole building process in my country mainly comes from the production and operation stages, accounting for about 50% and 46% respectively. Therefore, whether it is thermal insulation such as industrial furnaces in the production stage, or thermal insulation such as walls and glass in the operation stage, aerogel materials have great application potential; the construction field will become a major home for aerogels.

my country's building insulation material market is huge, with an output value of more than 250 billion yuan, and it is expected to expand further in the future. In 2020, my country's wall insulation material market will be nearly 150 billion yuan. The output of architectural coatings in my country is 7.15 million tons, accounting for 29.1% of the total output. The output value is expected to be 130 billion yuan; the glass output value is 92.6 billion yuan.

3.5 Transportation: Electric vehicles may become an important growth stage in the future

Aerogel can provide safety protection for power battery thermal insulation. In addition to being used between power battery cells, it can also be used between the module and the casing, and outside the battery box. In May 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Safety Requirements for Power Batteries for Electric Vehicles" to increase the thermal diffusion test of the battery system, requiring that after the thermal runaway of the battery cell occurs, the battery system will not catch fire or explode within 5 minutes, and reserve a safe escape for the occupants. time. According to public reports of Guzhong Ning Technology, the only product that can last for 5 minutes is only aerogel.

Chevrolet Changxun uses aerogel for heat insulation between cells; CATL, AVIC Lithium, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other top ten power battery manufacturers in the world have purchased aerogel products. Domestic aerospace Wujiang, Elison. Aerogel manufacturers such as Audemars Piguet, Yantuo, and Zhongning Technology all supply aerogel products for batteries. Aspen Aerogels said in its 2021 annual report that it plans to build a second aerogel plant in Georgia to meet electric vehicle demand.

Under the conservative and optimistic situation, it is expected that the global electric vehicle sales will be 25.76 million and 46.64 million in 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of 23% and 31%. In terms of price, with reference to the average sales price of Aspen Aerogels from 2019 to 2021, it is assumed to be US$37/m2; in terms of consumption, it is assumed that the consumption of bicycle aerogels is 3.5m2. It is estimated that the theoretical scale of aerogels in the global electric vehicle market in 2030 can reach 3.3/6 billion US dollars, and the theoretical scale of the Chinese electric vehicle market can reach 1.2/1.5 billion US dollars.

High-speed trains and subways operate at high speeds, with large changes in operating environment temperature, and the entire vehicle is smoke-free and fireproof. Materials such as light weight, sound insulation and noise reduction, thermal insulation, and fire protection are required. Aerogel felt can meet the operation requirements of high-speed rail and subway, and its main application areas include roof, side wall, underframe, end wall, air-conditioning system, and other systems of high-speed rail and subway. Aerogel insulation materials have been used in some high-speed railways and subways in my country; domestic companies such as Elison, Audemars Piguet and Yantuo all produce and sell related products.

There is potential growth space for high-speed rail and subway. Taking my country's standard EMU as an example, a car body is 209m in length, 3.36m in width and 4.05m in height. If a layer of aerogel felt is laid on the side, roof and underframe of the car, about 3097m2 of air condensate is required. felt. It is estimated that the market value of aerogel materials corresponding to a single standard EMU is 115,000 US dollars.
According to the "14th Five-Year Plan", my country's high-speed railway operation mileage will develop from 38,000 kilometers in 2020 to 50,000 kilometers in 2025, with an average annual compound growth of 5.6%. The increase in operating mileage is expected to drive the increase in the number of EMUs. According to the average annual growth rate of 4.6% in the number of EMUs in my country in the past two years, the size of aerogels in my country's EMU market is expected to reach 550 million US dollars in theory in 2025.

3.6 Aerospace and military industry: the "King of Heat Insulation"

Aerogel is an excellent material for aerospace and military industries. Affected by the flight environment, aerospace materials need to have the characteristics of low density, high hardness, high temperature resistance and low thermal conductivity. Several types of insulation materials commonly used in the aerospace field include phenolic resins, glass fibers, aerogels, etc., and aerogels are considered ideal insulation materials.

Aerogel is the earliest and most mature in the field of aerospace and military industry. Aerogel was originally used in the aerospace and military industry, and has been used in the thermal insulation of important components such as spacecraft, satellites, rockets, missiles, fighter planes, and military vehicles. my country's first Mars probe "Tianwen No. 1" uses aerogel materials for the landing engine and the surface of the rover to cope with extreme heat and extreme cold.

The "14th Five-Year Plan" mentioned the need to speed up the modernization of national defense and the military, so as to realize the unity of a prosperous country and a strong military. In the future, the demand for new materials in the aerospace and military industry will continue to increase, and the permeability of aerogels is expected to be further improved.

3.7 Apparel field: high-end cold protection market is expected to achieve breakthroughs

The growth rate of my country's down jacket market is considerable and stable. At present, cold-proof clothing is mainly down jackets, and the main filling materials are duck down, goose down, etc. The down filaments are intertwined to reduce the air flow rate and prevent the loss of heat by air convection. According to the data of China National Garment Association, the market size of down jackets in my country was 76.7 billion yuan in 2015, and it will grow to 156.2 billion yuan in 2021, with an average annual compound growth rate of 12.6% from 2015 to 2021.