4, reduce costs and expand scale to help the industry meet the wind

4.1 Cost composition of aerogel: raw material cost accounts for nearly 50%

Aerogels are favored by many industries because of their unique properties, but their use is limited due to high raw material costs and manufacturing costs. Aspen Aerogels data shows that material costs account for about 48% of the total cost, and manufacturing costs account for about 44%. Specifically, the production cost of aerogel is mainly concentrated in silicon source (raw material), equipment depreciation (drying) and energy consumption (drying). Therefore, the cost reduction of aerogel mainly starts from drying cost and raw material cost.

4.2 The continuous innovation of drying technology is conducive to the substantial reduction of manufacturing costs

The cost advantage of atmospheric drying is obvious, which helps to reduce manufacturing costs. The mainstream processes of aerogel drying include supercritical drying and atmospheric drying. Among them, atmospheric drying has obvious advantages in equipment investment and production cost. my country's drying technology is constantly innovating and breaking through. By using low-cost inorganic silicon source and atmospheric drying technology to replace the high-cost organic silicon source supercritical preparation process, the preparation time is greatly reduced, the investment recovery period is shortened, and the manufacturing cost is reduced to supercritical. 1/20 of the critical drying technology; atmospheric drying technology has broad prospects for development.

4.3 Raw materials: At present, the organic silicon source is the mainstream route

According to different compound structures and components, silicon sources can be divided into organic silicon sources and inorganic silicon sources. Among them, organic silicon sources include functional silanes such as methyl orthosilicate (TMOS) and ethyl orthosilicate (TEOS); inorganic silicon sources include silicon tetrachloride, sodium silicate, and the like.

At present, the organic silicon source is the mainstream route. On the one hand, the organosilicon source has a wide range of applications and can be applied to both supercritical drying process and atmospheric drying process. On the other hand, some inorganic silicon sources have limited applications. Although the price of inorganic silicon sources is much lower than that of organic silicon sources, there are many impurities, and a lot of water washing and organic solvent replacement are required in the process of sodium silicate production of aerogels. The production process is labor-intensive, the preparation cycle is long, and waste water is required. Processing and other characteristics limit its current wide-scale application.

4.4 my country is the main producer of functional silane, and its production capacity is still expanding steadily

Functional silanes generally refer to small organosilicon molecules whose main chain is -Si-O-C-structure. According to the use, it can be divided into silane coupling agent, silane crosslinking agent and other functional silanes. The general formula of silane coupling agent is RSiX3, which can be divided into sulfur-containing silane, amino silane, vinyl silane, epoxy silane, methacryloxy silane, etc. according to the difference of R group; silane crosslinking agent can be divided into There are three types: deacidification type, decopper oxime type and dealcohol type. Methyl orthosilicate (TMOS), ethyl orthosilicate (TEOS), and methyltrimethoxysilane (MTMS) used in the production of aerogels are dealcoholized crosslinking agents.

From 2011 to 2021, the global functional silane production capacity and output will increase steadily, with an average annual compound growth rate of 6.08%. Among them, due to the impact of the epidemic, the decline in global operating rates in 2020 led to a slight decline in production. my country is the main producer of functional silanes in the world, with production capacity and output accounting for 72.9% and 67.5% of the world respectively in 2021.

In 2021, my country's functional silane production capacity will be 557,600 tons per year, the output will be 322,600 tons, and the operating rate will be 57.86%. From 2011 to 2021, the annual output will increase by 11.26%; the demand will be 218,900 tons. %. Affected by the epidemic, my country's functional silane production and demand growth will slow down in 2020, and will be restored in 2021, and the overall development trend is still strong.

Sulfur-containing silanes are the largest category of functional silanes in my country, accounting for 32% of the total output; followed by silane crosslinking agents, accounting for 27%. It is expected that the demand for functional silane in my country will maintain a compound annual growth rate of about 10%; the production capacity of functional silane in my country will still maintain a steady pace of expansion, which will lead to a steady increase in the supply of silane crosslinking agents.

There is a mismatch between supply and demand of trichlorosilane. Continuing the high boom is expected to drive the development of functional silane boom. On the demand side, the downstream of trichlorosilane is mainly polysilicon and silane coupling agent. Among them, the demand for polysilicon for trichlorosilane is reflected in the two stages of commissioning and production. It is estimated that the demand for polysilicon for trichlorosilane in 2022-2023 is expected to be 314,200 tons; according to SAGSI data, it is expected that silane coupling will occur in 2022-2023 The demand for trichlorosilane is 182,000 tons; the total demand for trichlorosilane in my country from 2022 to 2023 is 496,200 tons. On the supply side, according to the production progress of Jianghan New Materials, Sanfu Co., Ltd., Hongbai New Materials, Chenguang New Materials, Dongfang Hope, and Xin'an Co., Ltd., even considering the operating rate of 70& , is expected to drive the prosperity of the functional silane industry.

4.5 Polysilicon industry is a potentially important source of silicon tetrachloride

The industrial methods for producing silicon tetrachloride include industrial silicon chlorination, silicon carbide chlorination, ferrosilicon chlorination, and diatomaceous earth chlorination. At present, the industrial silicon chlorination method is mainly used, but this process has large energy consumption and high cost.

The polysilicon industry is expected to be a potentially important source of silicon tetrachloride. With the increase of polysilicon production in my country in recent years, a large amount of by-product silicon tetrachloride is produced, mainly for recycling. The modified Siemens method is the most widely used in industrial silicon production. Every ton of polysilicon produced by this process can produce about 15 tons of silicon tetrachloride by-product. In 2021, my country's polysilicon output will be 505,000 tons, and the theoretically corresponding by-product silicon tetrachloride output will be 7.6 million tons.

At present, silicon tetrachloride is mainly used to prepare fumed silica. Ethyl orthosilicate, optical fiber preform and trichlorosilane, etc. Among them, trichlorosilane is the raw material for the preparation of polysilicon. The preparation of trichlorosilane through silicon tetrachloride can realize closed-loop recycling of materials. Under the background of high polysilicon price, it is the main destination of silicon tetrachloride at present.

In 2021, my country's polysilicon production capacity will be 520,000 tons per year, with an output of 505,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, and a compound annual growth rate of 20.49% from 2015 to 2021; the demand is 609,000 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.20%. In recent years, with the rapid development of my country's photovoltaic industry and semiconductor industry, the market demand for polysilicon has continued to increase. Although the output of polysilicon has also continued to increase, the current supply and demand pattern is good, and the price of polysilicon continues to rise. From 68,300 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2021 to more than 200,000 yuan/ton currently.

The rise in polysilicon prices has triggered a wave of capacity expansion, and the supply of silicon tetrachloride is expected to increase significantly. At present, many industry giants such as GCL-Poly, Daqo Energy and Xinte Energy have announced to continue to expand production. According to the forecast of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, by 2025, my country's polysilicon production capacity will reach 3 million tons per year, or even higher. At that time, the supply of silicon tetrachloride brought about by the expansion of polysilicon production will increase significantly. In addition to the initial reuse, the supply of other uses is expected to increase, and the cost of corresponding aerogel raw materials is expected to be reduced.

4.6 Enterprises of all parties increase production, and large-scale production will help reduce costs

With the support of policies, based on the huge market space of aerogel products, many companies have entered the aerogel industry, promoting the accelerated expansion of industry production capacity. According to preliminary statistics disclosed by the company, the current domestic production capacity of aerogel composite materials is about 299,000 cubic meters per year, and more than 1.65 million cubic meters per year of production capacity will be released in the long-term. With the expansion of production capacity in the aerogel industry, companies with integrated industrial chains in the future may stand out with cost advantages and channel advantages.

5. Analysis of key companies

Chenguang New Materials: Leading in the functional silane industry, the layout of the entire aerogel industry chain

In 2021, the company's main functional silane business, the market demand has increased significantly compared with 2020. In coatings, composite materials, adhesives and other industries, the demand for functional silanes has grown significantly. Typically, in new aerogel materials, the demand for ethyl orthosilicate (CG-502) has grown significantly.

Hongbai New Materials: Sulfur-containing silane subdivision leader, deepening the whole industry layout of aerogel

At present, the company's downstream customers are mainly concentrated in tire companies, and the demand for main products has rebounded. In 2021, global passenger car tire sales will increase significantly, of which the sales growth of original tires will be 2%, and the sales growth of replacement tires will be 11%.
In 2021, the company will achieve an operating income of 1.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.0%, and a compound annual growth rate of 15.1% from 2016 to 2021; a net profit attributable to the parent of 168 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%, and a compound annual growth rate of 16.9% from 2016 to 2021. .